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The competition between prediction markets and sportsbooks is intense and there is some evidence that the former is encroaching on the latter’s customer base.
A survey by Fullstory, a behavioral data analytics company, says that amid the evolution of yes/no exchanges, 60% of bettors said prediction markets are altering how they use sportsbooks with 35% admitting that they’ve reduced usage of traditional sports wagering platforms as access to sports event contracts increased.
“Consumers are being presented with more options for how they can participate in online gaming, creating a more competitive landscape where a seamless digital experience is increasingly becoming part of the value proposition,” said Jason Wolf, president of Fullstory, in a statement. “The brands that understand how consumers are navigating, comparing, and engaging with their platforms in real-time can identify where friction is getting in the way of trust and retention.”
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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.
About Triple Chili
In a 14 August note from UBS, the investment bank reiterated its buy rating for Entain. “Overall, we believe Entain shares offer the highest theoretical upside potential within the European gaming sector, albeit with a risk profile that remains elevated relative to peers,” the note went on to say.
Entain’s share price tumble follows a broader trend for gaming stocks in recent years. Added to that is a declining interest in the LSEG, as listed companies continue to exit at pace, including Flutter, which removed its secondary listing from LSEG in August.
The gaming giant left for greener pastures in the US, expecting to benefit from higher valuations in the most liquid equity market. But analysts have noted a similar downward trend in Flutter’s share price over time.
